Find a TenderPlanned procurementPipeline notice
Published 21 May 2026, 16:16 BST

Official UK procurement notice

Paper and Card Processing

Authority: Birmingham City Council (Local council)

ServicesSME suitable
Planned pipeline value£4,000,000pipeline notice, not a live tender
Tender notice expected 1 Apr 2027from the planned procurement notice
Contract term 5 yrsends 31 Mar 2033 · starts 1 Apr 2028

What is being bought

Published requirement description

Paper and Card Processing (Household and HWRC)

CPV: Refuse and waste related services

The lotProcurement structure

single lot · no lot value published
Lot #1Planned 5 yrsSME
Contract period: 1 Apr 2028 – 31 Mar 2033 (5 yrs)
Delivery: West MidlandsEligibility: SME eligible

Who is likely to bid for this lot ↓

Pipeline intelligence · planning stage: how this market runs before the tender is published

How Birmingham City Council buys Refuse and waste related services (CPV 9050), and who usually turns up

Birmingham City Council’s own published record, next to the published market for the same work. Frameworks and DPS are kept out: they attract a different number of bids. Whole-market view: Refuse and waste related services (CPV 9050) →

1

How the contest usually goes

Winner shares use published awards; bid and price charts use contested lots.

Question for the bid
This buyerBirmingham City Council · all categories
What to do with it
How often do SMEs win?
i

How often small and medium firms win.

Share of awards where the winner’s size is known.

The counts under this question show how many awards have a known supplier size.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 120 of 165 known-size awards · market: CPV 9050 · West Midlands, n=47
73%62%

Small firms have won here. Neither number says whether you qualify; it describes who has been winning.

How often do local suppliers win?
i

How often local firms win similar work.

Winners with a registered address in the delivery region, out of awards with a known address.

Here, local means registered in West Midlands.

A local branch does not count if the registered address is elsewhere.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 170 of 224 known-location awards · market: CPV 9050 · West Midlands, n=57
76%32%

Most of this buyer’s recorded winners are registered in West Midlands.

How long to a decision?
i

How long buyers here take to decide after bids close.

Middle value in days from the deadline to the first award notice, on competitions that published both dates.

Only decided tenders count, so slow ones still waiting are not in.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 13 decided notices · market: CPV 9050 · UK-wide, n=105
62 days46 days

Half of these awards were announced within 62 days of the bid deadline.

How often single-bid or direct?
i

How often work is awarded with no recorded rival.

Direct awards and tenders where every published lot count shows one bid.

Both shares are minimums: some awards have no bid count.

Thin markets produce this too; it is not proof of a tailored specification.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: at least 23 of 91 procurements with awards had no recorded rival · market: CPV 9050 · West Midlands, n=56
25%29%

Direct awards or one recorded bid are common here. Check the route before spending time on a bid.

How many bids did past lots attract?

i

How many bids past lots received.

Each colour is a bid-count range. Only competed lots with a published count are included.

Past bids do not predict this tender.

Last 36 months.

This buyer58 lots with bid counts · all categories
28% had one bid
The market14 lots with bid counts · CPV 9050 · West Midlands
14% had one bid
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
1 bid28% / 14%
Buyer: 16 of 58 lots with published bid counts. Market: 2 of 14 lots with published bid counts.
2–334% / 43%
Buyer: 20 of 58 lots with published bid counts. Market: 6 of 14 lots with published bid counts.
4–621% / 36%
Buyer: 12 of 58 lots with published bid counts. Market: 5 of 14 lots with published bid counts.
7+17% / 7%
Buyer: 10 of 58 lots with published bid counts. Market: 1 of 14 lots with published bid counts.

How did awards compare with estimates?

i

Where winning prices landed against estimates.

Each colour shows awards below, close to or above the published estimate, one lot at a time.

Past prices are a guide, not a bid price.

Last 36 months.

This buyer64 lots with estimate and award · all categories
48% below estimate
The market9 lots with estimate and award · CPV 9050 · West Midlands
56% below estimate
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
Below estimate48% / 56%
Buyer: 31 of 64 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 5 of 9 lots with an estimate and award.
Within ±2%47% / 44%
Buyer: 30 of 64 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 4 of 9 lots with an estimate and award.
Above estimate5% / 0%
Buyer: 3 of 64 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 0 of 9 lots with an estimate and award.
2

Assess each lot
i

What past awards tell you about each lot.

See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.

No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.

Open a lot for its forecast, this buyer’s previous supplier and possible competitors, from published award history, not a bid list

Lot #1CPV 905060 monthsSME suitablePublished estimate£4.0m
Expected competition
i

How many bids this lot may attract.

The forecast uses similar past competitions. The bar shows either that forecast or past bid counts; the line below says which.

Each lot shows its own forecast based on its own category; forecasts for different lots of the same notice are not comparative. The bar shows 14 past lots.

A forecast, not a list of bidders.

—No model forecast yet14% single-bid risk
Past bids on 14 similar lots
1 bid14%
2 of 14 similar past lots received 1 bid (14%).
2–343%
6 of 14 similar past lots received 2–3 (43%).
4–636%
5 of 14 similar past lots received 4–6 (36%).
7+7%
1 of 14 similar past lots received 7+ (7%).
Comparable past lots usually drew 3 bids.
Commercial price forecast
i

Where the award price may land.

The forecast uses similar awards and the buyer’s estimate. The band covers the middle half of likely prices.

No comparable awards for this lot yet.

A statistical guide from past awards, not a price to bid.

—No model forecast yet
No comparable awards on record for this lot’s category yet. The published estimate is £4.0m, and the forecast stays empty until the market has a record to read.

Who has supplied this buyer on similar work?
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

A past supplier may not bid again.

SupplierThis buyer’s earlier contractLotAward valueWhy listed
Smurfit Westrock UK LtdEarlier contractProcessing of Paper and Cardnotice published May 2025Paper and Card Processing£4.6mMatched as the earlier contract

Who could compete for this lot?
i

Who could compete for this lot?

Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.

None is confirmed as a bidder.

Candidate suppliers for this notice have not been worked out yet, so this is not a verdict that nobody fits.

About this data
  • Source. Official UK public procurement notices (Find a Tender), reused under the Open Government Licence v3.0. New notices arrive through the day; the figures are rebuilt nightly.
  • Two views, kept apart. The authority’s own track record and the wider market for the same kind of work sit side by side and are never mixed. Where the local picture is too thin, a figure widens to a broader market and says which one it used.
  • Forecasts are labelled. The price forecast and its range, possible competitors and the earlier-work matches are our estimates from past awards: not published facts, not win chances and not price advice. Official notices do not say who is bidding.
  • Every figure shows what it rests on. Not every notice publishes a bid count, a value or a delivery region, so each figure carries the number of records behind it, and one built on few records is marked as such. The on a figure explains it; the counting rules are in the methodology. Spotted something wrong? Tell us.

What this replaces
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

89% title match.

A past supplier may not bid again.

The prior contract this notice most likely re-tenders · matched by title and category (89% title match), the holder is not guaranteed to re-bid

Processing of Paper and Card — held by Smurfit Westrock UK Ltd; no contract end date published.

Procedure terms & legal framework

From the official record
Legal basis
UKPGA · 2023/54 Procurement Act 2023
Procurement category
Services
Notice status
Planned procurement
Procurement threshold
Unspecified in notice
Regulatory regime
Standard
Commercial structure
Stand-alone contract (no framework)
Competition type
Competitive procedure
GPA / WTO covered
Unspecified in notice
Recurring procurement
Unspecified in notice
First published
21 May 2026, 16:16 BST
Last source update
21 May 2026, 16:16 BST
FTS notice number
2026/S 000-047335
Latest notice
Pipeline notice (UK1)
Classification (CPV)
Refuse and waste related services
Delivery area
West Midlands (UKG)
Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-069fd4 Find a Tender

How it was run

Official notice
Submission deadline
—

Timeline

21 May 2026 → 1 Apr 2028 · 3 dates
  1. Planning notice published153 days ago
    21 May 2026, 16:16 BST
  2. Today
    21 Oct 2026
  3. Tender notice expectedin 162 days
    1 Apr 2027, 23:59 BST
  4. Contract starts
    1 Apr 2028, 00:00 BST

Notice history

1 event · 1 release on Find a Tender
  1. Pipeline notice published
    21 May 2026, 16:16 BST
    UK1

Commercial outcome & contract awards

Pipeline notice
Awards (0)
No award published
Contracts (0)
No contract published
Bid statistics
No aggregate bid statistics published

Contracting authority & participating public bodies

Birmingham City Council

Contracting authorityPublic authority - sub-central government GB-PPON: PCJJ-4826-QMLZ Council House, 1 Victoria Square, Birmingham, West Midlands, B1 1BBContact name, email

Official documents & specifications (1)

Official links; attachments are not copied

Notices published for this procedure

  • Pipeline notice planningPipeline noticeUK1Pipeline notice on Find a Tender