Official UK procurement notice
Financial Risk Modelling Services
Authority: Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities Agency) (Public body)
What is being bought3 lots · detail below
Published requirement descriptionHomes England produces a range of macroeconomic forecasts on a quarterly basis. These macroeconomic forecasts need to be translated into the impact on the portfolio, and used to quantify, understand, and manage the financial risk to the Agency.
Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound Recoverable Investment portfolio consisting of c. 300 loans. The portfolio has been running since 2016 and is highly concentrated in the UK housing market with a skew towards small / medium housebuilders with limited financial and credit history, as well as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) set up to specifically to develop a site. Security for the loans is typically provided by the land associated with the development. Internal data for quantitatively estimating the impact of different macroeconomic scenarios on the various model parameters is limited.
A range of models including Expected Credit Loss models and Stress Testing models are used to quantify the financial risk of different macroeconomic scenarios on the Recoverable Investment portfolio. The inputs into these models are generally Probability of Default estimates (both through the cycle and point in time), exposure at default estimates, and Loss Given Default estimates. The regularly updated macroeconomic forecasts therefore need to be translated into these parameters for use in the various models. The Quantitative Risk and Stress Testing team (QRS) at Homes England manages this process.
All loans are internally credit rated on origination and on a regular basis throughout the term of the loan. The current process for producing the parameter estimates involves both quantitative analysis and qualitative assessment, converting the internal ratings into the required parameter estimates. Homes England also subscribes to an external ratings agency service to assist with benchmarking the estimates.
Homes England is seeking assistance on producing these estimates on an ongoing basis. This requirement forms Lot 1: Financial Risk Parameter Estimation Services (£500k estimated value) of the Service. See Appendix A: Lot 1 Service Scope. It is envisaged that a single supplier will be appointed to lot 1.
Homes England is also seeking support in designing, building, and implementing additional financial and financial risk models to improve its understanding of the current portfolio, and to model new products and programmes. This requirement forms Lot 2: Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services (£500k estimated value). See Appendix B: Lot 2 Service Scope. It is envisaged that there will be 4 suppliers appointed for lot 2.
Homes England designs, builds, and maintains a wide range of financial and financial risk models. These models and methodologies are applied to a wide range of financial and risk management problems, including credit risk modelling, scenario analysis and forecasting, stress testing, and IFRS 9. Homes England is also seeking external support to provide model validation and assurance services on these models. This requirement forms Lot 3 Model Review and Validation Services (£300k estimated value). See Appendix C: Lot 3 Service Scope. It is envisaged that a single supplier will be appointed to lot 3
CPV: Financial and insurance services
Lots and requirements (3)Procurement structure
3 lots · no lot values published · same evaluation weights on every lotLot #1Financial Risk Parameter Estimation ServicesAwardedRenewal
Homes England produces a range of macroeconomic forecasts on a quarterly basis. These
macroeconomic forecasts need to be translated into the impact on the portfolio, and used to
quantify, understand, and manage the financial risk to the Agency.
Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound Recoverable Investment portfolio consisting
of c. 300 loans. The portfolio has been running since 2016 and is highly concentrated in the
UK housing market with a skew towards small / medium housebuilders with limited financial
and credit history, as well as special purpose vehicles (SPVs) set up to specifically to
develop a site. Security for the loans is typically provided by the land associated with the
development. Internal data for quantitatively estimating the impact of different
macroeconomic scenarios on the various model parameters is limited.
A range of models including Expected Credit Loss models and Stress Testing models are
used to quantify the financial risk of different macroeconomic scenarios on the Recoverable
Investment portfolio. The inputs into these models are generally Probability of Default
estimates (both through the cycle and point in time), exposure at default estimates, and
Loss Given Default estimates. The regularly updated macroeconomic forecasts therefore
need to be translated into these parameters for use in the various models. The Quantitative
Risk and Stress Testing team (QRS) at Homes England manages this process.
All loans are internally credit rated on origination and on a regular basis throughout the term
of the loan. The current process for producing the parameter estimates involves both
quantitative analysis and qualitative assessment, converting the internal ratings into the
required parameter estimates. Homes England also subscribes to an external ratings agency
service to assist with benchmarking the estimates.
Homes England is seeking assistance on producing these estimates on an ongoing basis.
Lot #2Financial Risk Modelling Advisory ServicesAwardedRenewal
Homes England means Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities
Agency), or anyone acting on behalf of Homes England that is seeking to invite suitable
Suppliers to participate in this procurement process.
Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound portfolio involving a wide range of complex
interventions and financial programmes. The portfolio includes the Government’s £19bn
Help to Buy product, £1.1bn in land assets, and £2.2bn in financial investments (loans, equity
investments, and guarantees). The portfolio is highly concentrated in the UK housing
market.
The Agency designs, builds, and maintains a wide range of financial and financial risk models
in tools including excel, VBA, SQL, and python. These models and methodologies are applied
to a wide range of financial and risk management problems, including credit risk modelling,
scenario analysis and forecasting, stress testing, and IFRS 9.
The Agency requires support in designing, building, and implementing additional financial
and financial risk models to improve its understanding of the current portfolio, and to model
new products and programmes.
Lot #3Model Review and Validation ServicesAwardedRenewal
Homes England means Homes England (the name adopted by the Homes and Communities
Agency), or anyone acting on behalf of Homes England that is seeking to invite suitable
Suppliers to participate in this procurement process.
Homes England manages a multi-billion-pound portfolio involving a wide range of complex
interventions and financial programmes. The portfolio includes the Government’s £19bn
Page 9 to 12
Help to Buy product, £1.1bn in land assets, and £2.2bn in financial investments (loans, equity
investments, and guarantees). The portfolio is highly concentrated in the UK housing
market.
The Agency designs, builds, and maintains a wide range of financial and financial risk models.
These models and methodologies are applied to a wide range of financial and risk
management problems, including credit risk modelling, scenario analysis and forecasting,
stress testing, and IFRS 9.
These models are built in a range of tools including excel, VBA, python, and SQL.
The Agency requires external support to provide model validation and assurance services.
What it takes to wini
How this buyer will score bids.
The evaluation criteria and weights exactly as published on the notice, grouped by family (price, quality, social value and so on).
Evaluation split and conditions of participation as published; the tender pack may add morei
How this buyer will score bids.
The evaluation criteria and weights exactly as published on the notice, grouped by family (price, quality, social value and so on).
Published award criteria (2)
- Quality: 50
- Price: 50
- Staff
- Names and qualifications of delivery staff must be submitted
- Price carries 50 of 100 points: a 10% discount moves about 5 points. This one is won on the number: sharpen the price before polishing the prose.
Price arithmetic assumes straight proportional scoring; the tender pack may use another formula.
Procedure terms & legal framework
From the official record- Procedure method
- Open procedure
- Legal basis
- CELEX · 32014L0024 Public Contracts Regulations 2015 (Directive 2014/24/EU)
- Procurement category
- Services
- Notice status
- Awarded
- Procurement threshold
- Unspecified in notice
- Regulatory regime
- Standard
- Commercial structure
- Stand-alone contract (no framework)
- Competition type
- Competitive procedure
- GPA / WTO covered
- Yes (GPA)
- Recurring procurement
- Yes
- First published
- 12 Sept 2023, 16:50 BST
- Last source update
- 2 Feb 2024, 16:38 GMT
- Award evaluation window
- 12 Oct 2023 – …
- Authority reference
DN658913- FTS notice number
2024/S 000-003597- Classification (CPV)
- Delivery area
- Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-03fc2bFind a Tender
How it was run
Official notice- Submission deadline
- 13 Oct 2023, 12:00 BST
- Submission channel
- {"electronicSubmission"}
- Accepted languages
- en
- Bids opened
- 12 Oct 2023, 16:00 BST
Timeline
12 Oct 2023 → 2 Feb 2024 · 3 dates- Bids opened12 Oct 2023, 16:00 BST
- Submission deadline13 Oct 2023, 12:00 BST
- Notice published2 Feb 2024, 16:38 GMT
Notice history
1 event · 2 releases on Find a Tender- Status changed to complete2 Feb 2024, 16:38 GMT
Commercial outcome & contract awards
Published awards, contracts and bid statistics, not a forecast| Awarded to | Value | Date | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lot 1 · Financial Risk Parameter Estimation Services1 award | |||
| Jaywing UK LtdSME | £500,000 † | — | Awarded |
| Lot 2 · Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services4 awards | |||
| Jaywing UK LtdSME | £500,000 † | — | Awarded |
| Government Actuary's Department | £500,000 † | — | Awarded |
| Grant Thornton UK LLP | £500,000 † | — | Awarded |
| Mazars LLP | £500,000 † | — | Awarded |
| Lot 3 · Model Review and Validation Services1 award | |||
| Jaywing UK LtdSME | £300,000 † | — | Awarded |
Contracts
Financial Risk Parameter Estimation Services · Jaywing UK LtdSME
- Signed
- 16 Jan 2024
- Value
- £500,000
- Status
- active
Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services · Jaywing UK LtdSME
- Signed
- 16 Jan 2024
- Value
- £500,000
- Status
- active
Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services · Government Actuary's Department
- Signed
- 16 Jan 2024
- Value
- £500,000
- Status
- active
Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services · Grant Thornton UK LLP
- Signed
- 16 Jan 2024
- Value
- £500,000
- Status
- active
Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services · Mazars LLP
- Signed
- 16 Jan 2024
- Value
- £500,000
- Status
- active
Model Review and Validation Services · Jaywing UK LtdSME
- Signed
- 16 Jan 2024
- Value
- £300,000
- Status
- active
Bid statistics published by the authority
| Lot | Bids | SME | VCSE | Valid bid range |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 · Financial Risk Parameter Estimation Services | 12bids · 12 electronic | 5 | — | — |
| 2 · Financial Risk Modelling Advisory Services | 11bids · 11 electronic | 4 | — | — |
| 3 · Model Review and Validation Services | 12bids · 12 electronic | 4 | — | — |
Contracting authority & participating public bodies
Dispute resolution & review bodies
- Royal Court of JusticeReview body
Bidders & participating suppliers
4 commercial parties on the notice- Government Actuary's DepartmentAwarded supplier
- Grant Thornton UK LLPAwarded supplier
- Jaywing UK LtdAwarded supplier
- Mazars LLPAwarded supplier
Official documents & specifications (2)
Official links; attachments are not copiedTender pack and attachments
- Economic and financial selection criteria
- Technical selection criteria