Find a TenderPlanned procurementPipeline notice
Published 4 Jun 2026, 12:45 BST

Official UK procurement notice

Care provision for Supported Housing Schemes

Authority: Torfaen County Borough Council (Local council)

ServicesOpen procedureAbove thresholdLight touch regimeSME suitableVCSE suitable
Planned pipeline value£4,000,000pipeline notice, not a live tender
Tender notice expected 10 Aug 2026from the planned procurement notice
Contract term 4 yrsends 2 Sept 2030 · starts 2 Sept 2026

What is being bought

Published requirement description

I am looking to procure care services for three supported housing schemes in Torfaen. I would like the opportunity to go out as a single procurement but with three distinct contracts available to be awarded. Bidders should have the opportunity to win a maximum of two contracts. Therefore at final award there would either be three providers delivering one scheme each or two providers, one delivering one scheme and the other delivering two schemes.

CPV: Health and social work services

The lotProcurement structure

single lot · no lot value published
Lot #1Planned 4 yrsSMEVCSE
Contract period: 2 Sept 2026 – 2 Sept 2030 (4 yrs)
Delivery: WalesEligibility: SME eligibleVCSE eligible

Who is likely to bid for this lot ↓

Pipeline intelligence · planning stage: how this market runs before the tender is published

How Torfaen County Borough Council buys Health and social work services (CPV 85), and who usually turns up

Torfaen County Borough Council’s published record next to the market for the same work. Frameworks and DPS are left out: they draw different bid counts. Whole-market view: Health and social work services (CPV 85) →

1

How the contest usually goes

Winner shares use published awards; bid and price charts use contested lots.

Question for the bid
This buyerTorfaen County Borough Council · division 85
The marketHealth and social work services (CPV 85) · Wales (Cymru)
What to do with it
How often do SMEs win?
i

How often small and medium firms win.

Share of awards where the winner’s size is known.

The counts under this question show how many awards have a known supplier size.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 2 of 6 known-size awards · market: division 85 · Wales (Cymru), n=316
33%59%

Small firms have won here. Neither number says whether you qualify; it describes who has been winning.

How often do local suppliers win?
i

How often local firms win similar work.

Winners with a registered address in the delivery region, out of awards with a known address.

Local means the winner is registered in the region where that award was delivered. The market figure counts awards delivered in Wales (Cymru).

A local branch does not count if the registered address is elsewhere.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 5 of 8 known-location awards · market: division 85 · Wales (Cymru), n=417
63%61%

Most of this buyer’s recorded winners were registered in the region where that award was delivered.

How long to a decision?
i

How long buyers here take to decide after bids close.

Middle value in days from the bid deadline to the award date, on competitions that published both.

Only decided tenders count, so slow ones still waiting are not in.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 5 decided notices · market: division 85 · Wales (Cymru), n=100
56 days40 days

Half of these awards have an award date within 56 days of the bid deadline.

How often single-bid or direct?
i

How often work is awarded with no recorded rival.

Direct awards and tenders where every published lot count shows one bid.

Both shares are minimums: some awards have no bid count.

Thin markets produce this too; it is not proof of a tailored specification.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: at least 2 of 6 procurements with awards had no recorded rival · market: division 85 · Wales (Cymru), n=424
33%54%

Direct awards or one recorded bid are common here. Check the route before spending time on a bid.

How many bids did past lots attract?

i

How many bids past lots received.

Each colour is a bid-count range. Only competed lots with a published count are included.

Past bids do not predict this tender.

Last 36 months.

This buyer7 lots with bid counts · broad CPV 85
29% had one bid
The market238 lots with bid counts · division 85 · Wales (Cymru)
33% had one bid
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
1 bid29% / 33%
Buyer: 2 of 7 lots with published bid counts. Market: 78 of 238 lots with published bid counts.
2–314% / 40%
Buyer: 1 of 7 lots with published bid counts. Market: 95 of 238 lots with published bid counts.
4–643% / 17%
Buyer: 3 of 7 lots with published bid counts. Market: 41 of 238 lots with published bid counts.
7+14% / 10%
Buyer: 1 of 7 lots with published bid counts. Market: 24 of 238 lots with published bid counts.

How did awards compare with estimates?

i

Where winning prices landed against estimates.

Each colour shows awards below, close to or above the published estimate, one lot at a time.

Past prices are a guide, not a bid price.

Last 36 months.

This buyer7 lots with estimate and award · broad CPV 85
57% below estimate
The market112 lots with estimate and award · division 85 · Wales (Cymru)
29% below estimate
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
Below estimate57% / 29%
Buyer: 4 of 7 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 33 of 112 lots with an estimate and award.
Within ±2%14% / 62%
Buyer: 1 of 7 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 69 of 112 lots with an estimate and award.
Above estimate29% / 9%
Buyer: 2 of 7 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 10 of 112 lots with an estimate and award.
2

Assess each lot
i

What past awards tell you about each lot.

See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.

No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.

Open a lot for its forecast, this buyer’s previous supplier and possible competitors, from published award history, not a bid list

Lot #1CPV 8548 monthsSME suitablePublished estimate£4.0m

This lot lists more than one class in CPV 85. The comparison uses that group.

Expected competition
i

How many bids this lot may attract.

The forecast uses similar past competitions. The bar shows either that forecast or past bid counts; the line below says which.

Each lot shows its own forecast based on its own category; forecasts for different lots of the same notice are not comparative. The bar shows 238 past lots.

A forecast, not a list of bidders.

—No model forecast yet33% chance of a single bid
Past bids on 238 similar lots
1 bid33%
78 of 238 similar past lots received 1 bid (33%).
2–340%
95 of 238 similar past lots received 2–3 (40%).
4–617%
41 of 238 similar past lots received 4–6 (17%).
7+10%
24 of 238 similar past lots received 7+ (10%).
Comparable past lots usually drew 2 bids.
Commercial price forecast
i

Where the award price may land.

The forecast uses similar awards and the buyer’s estimate. The band covers the middle half of likely prices.

No comparable awards for this lot yet.

A statistical guide from past awards, not a price to bid.

—No model forecast yet
No comparable awards on record for this lot’s category yet. The published estimate is £4.0m, and the forecast stays empty until the market has a record to read.

Who has supplied this buyer on similar work?
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

A past supplier may not bid again.

SupplierThis buyer’s earlier contractLotAward valueWhy listed
Cera Care Operations LimitedEarlier contractAdults with Learning Disability Supported Housing Schemesstarted Sept 2026Adults with Learning Disability Supported Housing Schemes – Lot 1 - Ty’r Hen Ysgol £1.7mMatched as the earlier contract
Cartrefi Cymru Cooperative LimitedEarlier contractAdults with Learning Disability Supported Housing Schemesstarted Sept 2026Adults with Learning Disability Supported Housing Schemes – Lot 2 - Somerton House£1.1mMatched as the earlier contract

Who could compete for this lot?
i

Who could compete for this lot?

Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.

None is confirmed as a bidder.

Candidate suppliers for this notice have not been worked out yet, so this is not a verdict that nobody fits.

About this data
  • Source. Official UK public procurement notices (Find a Tender), reused under the Open Government Licence v3.0. New notices arrive through the day; the figures are rebuilt nightly.
  • Two views, kept apart. The authority’s own track record and the wider market for the same kind of work sit side by side and are never mixed. Where the local picture is too thin, a figure widens to a broader market and says which one it used.
  • Forecasts are labelled. The price forecast and its range, possible competitors and the earlier-work matches are our estimates from past awards: not published facts, not win chances and not price advice. Official notices do not say who is bidding.
  • Every figure shows what it rests on. Not every notice publishes a bid count, a value or a delivery region, so each figure carries the number of records behind it, and one built on few records is marked as such. The on a figure explains it; the counting rules are in the methodology. Spotted something wrong? Tell us.

Procedure terms & legal framework

From the official record
Procedure method
Open procedure
Legal basis
UKPGA · 2023/54 Procurement Act 2023
Procurement category
Services
Notice status
Planned procurement
Procurement threshold
Above threshold (FTS publication)
Regulatory regime
Light touch regime
Commercial structure
Stand-alone contract (no framework)
Competition type
Competitive procedure
GPA / WTO covered
Unspecified in notice
Recurring procurement
Unspecified in notice
First published
4 Jun 2026, 12:45 BST
Last source update
4 Jun 2026, 12:45 BST
FTS notice number
2026/S 000-052761
Latest notice
Pipeline notice (UK1)
Classification (CPV)
Health and social work services
Delivery area
Wales (UKL16)
Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-06ad66 Find a Tender

How it was run

Official notice
Submission deadline
—

Timeline

4 Jun 2026 → 2 Sept 2026 · 3 dates
  1. Planning notice published143 days ago
    4 Jun 2026, 12:45 BST
  2. Tender notice expected76 days ago
    10 Aug 2026, 23:59 BST
  3. Contract starts54 days ago
    2 Sept 2026, 00:00 BST

Notice history

1 event · 1 release on Find a Tender
  1. Pipeline notice published
    4 Jun 2026, 12:45 BST
    UK1

Commercial outcome & contract awards

Pipeline notice
Awards (0)
No award published
Contracts (0)
No contract published
Bid statistics
No aggregate bid statistics published

Contracting authority & participating public bodies

Torfaen County Borough Council

Contracting authorityPublic authority - sub-central governmentWelsh devolved regulations apply GB-PPON: PDNG-5431-HGYV Civic Centre, Torfaen, Wales, NP4 0LSContact email

Official documents & specifications (1)

Official links; attachments are not copied

Notices published for this procedure

  • Pipeline notice planningPipeline noticeUK1Pipeline notice on Find a Tender