Find a TenderPlanned procurementPreliminary market engagement notice
Published 13 Jan 2026, 17:35 GMT

Official UK procurement notice

Project GRAYBURN · UK public procurement notice

Authority: Defence Equipment and Support

GoodsCompetitive flexible procedureAbove thresholdDefence & securitySME suitable
Planned pipeline value£1,666,666,667pipeline notice, not a live tender · 1 value update
Tender notice expected 2 Jul 2027from the planned procurement notice
Contract term 15 yrs 9 moends 31 Mar 2045 · starts 2 Jul 2029

What is being bought

Published requirement description

The Ministry of Defence (National Armaments Director group) will be holding an Industry Day in relation to Project GRAYBURN, which is considering the future replacement of the SA80 family of weapons and the provision of associated small-arms capability for UK Defence.

The Authority is at an early stage of developing the requirement and is using this engagement to inform its understanding of the market and potential delivery approaches. The scope and approach to any future procurement remain subject to further development and approval.

The potential scope, value and contract term are currently being developed and will be informed by this market engagement activity.

This notice does not constitute a call for competition, an invitation to tender or a commitment by the Authority to commence a procurement. The Authority has not selected a preferred procurement route, delivery model, supplier, product or contractual structure.

CPV: Rifles

The lotProcurement structure

single lot · no lot value published
Lot #1Planned 15 yrs 9 moSME
Contract period: 2 Jul 2029 – 31 Mar 2045 (15 yrs 9 mo)
Delivery: UKEligibility: SME eligible

Who is likely to bid for this lot ↓

Pipeline intelligence · planning stage: how this market runs before the tender is published

How Defence Equipment and Support buys Firearms (CPV 3532), and who usually turns up

Defence Equipment and Support’s published record next to the market for the same work. Frameworks and DPS are left out: they draw different bid counts. Whole-market view: Firearms (CPV 3532) →

1

How the contest usually goes

Winner shares use published awards; bid and price charts use contested lots.

Question for the bid
This buyerDefence Equipment and Support · division 35
The marketFirearms (CPV 3532) · UK-wide
What to do with it
How often do SMEs win?
i

How often small and medium firms win.

Share of awards where the winner’s size is known.

The counts under this question show how many awards have a known supplier size.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 2 of 16 known-size awards · market: division 35 · UK-wide, n=335
13%60%

Small firms have won here. Neither number says whether you qualify; it describes who has been winning. Small firms win less of this buyer’s work than the market’s: 13% against 60%, n=16.

How often do local suppliers win?
i

How often local firms win similar work.

Winners with a registered address in the delivery region, out of awards with a known address.

Local means the winner is registered in the region where that award was delivered.

A local branch does not count if the registered address is elsewhere.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 1 of 1 known-location awards · market: division 35 · UK-wide, n=285
1 of 135%

Most of this buyer’s recorded winners were registered in the region where that award was delivered.

How long to a decision?
i

How long buyers here take to decide after bids close.

Middle value in days from the bid deadline to the award date, on competitions that published both.

Only decided tenders count, so slow ones still waiting are not in.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 3 decided notices · market: division 35 · UK-wide, n=53
211 days58 days

Half of these awards have an award date within 211 days of the bid deadline.

How often single-bid or direct?
i

How often work is awarded with no recorded rival.

Direct awards and tenders where every published lot count shows one bid.

Both shares are minimums: some awards have no bid count.

Thin markets produce this too; it is not proof of a tailored specification.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: at least 26 of 31 procurements with awards had no recorded rival · market: CPV 3532 · UK-wide, n=8
84%63%

Direct awards or one recorded bid are common here. Check the route before spending time on a bid.

How many bids did past lots attract?

i

How many bids past lots received.

Each colour is a bid-count range. Only competed lots with a published count are included.

Past bids do not predict this tender.

Last 36 months.

This buyer21 lots with bid counts · all categories
52% had one bid
The market132 lots with bid counts · division 35 · UK-wide
18% had one bid
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
1 bid52% / 18%
Buyer: 11 of 21 lots with published bid counts. Market: 24 of 132 lots with published bid counts.
2–333% / 37%
Buyer: 7 of 21 lots with published bid counts. Market: 49 of 132 lots with published bid counts.
4–610% / 30%
Buyer: 2 of 21 lots with published bid counts. Market: 39 of 132 lots with published bid counts.
7+5% / 15%
Buyer: 1 of 21 lots with published bid counts. Market: 20 of 132 lots with published bid counts.

How did awards compare with estimates?

i

Where winning prices landed against estimates.

Each colour shows awards below, close to or above the published estimate, one lot at a time.

Past prices are a guide, not a bid price.

Last 36 months.

This buyer14 lots with estimate and award · all categories
43% below estimate
The market61 lots with estimate and award · division 35 · UK-wide
48% below estimate
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
Below estimate43% / 48%
Buyer: 6 of 14 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 29 of 61 lots with an estimate and award.
Within ±2%36% / 38%
Buyer: 5 of 14 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 23 of 61 lots with an estimate and award.
Above estimate21% / 15%
Buyer: 3 of 14 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 9 of 61 lots with an estimate and award.
2

Assess each lot
i

What past awards tell you about each lot.

See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.

No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.

Open a lot for its forecast, this buyer’s previous supplier and possible competitors, from published award history, not a bid list

Lot #1CPV 3532189 monthsSME suitablePublished estimate£1.7bn
Expected competition
i

How many bids this lot may attract.

The forecast uses similar past competitions. The bar shows either that forecast or past bid counts; the line below says which.

Each lot shows its own forecast based on its own category; forecasts for different lots of the same notice are not comparative. The bar shows 132 past lots.

A forecast, not a list of bidders.

—No model forecast yet18% chance of a single bid
Past bids on 132 similar lots
1 bid18%
24 of 132 similar past lots received 1 bid (18%).
2–337%
49 of 132 similar past lots received 2–3 (37%).
4–630%
39 of 132 similar past lots received 4–6 (30%).
7+15%
20 of 132 similar past lots received 7+ (15%).
Comparable past lots usually drew 3 bids.
Commercial price forecast
i

Where the award price may land.

The forecast uses similar awards and the buyer’s estimate. The band covers the middle half of likely prices.

No comparable awards for this lot yet.

A statistical guide from past awards, not a price to bid.

—No model forecast yet
No comparable awards on record for this lot’s category yet. The published estimate is £1.7bn, and the forecast stays empty until the market has a record to read.

Who has supplied this buyer on similar work?
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

A past supplier may not bid again.

No earlier contract of this buyer matches this lot on the published record.

Who could compete for this lot?
i

Who could compete for this lot?

Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.

None is confirmed as a bidder.

Candidate suppliers for this notice have not been worked out yet, so this is not a verdict that nobody fits.

About this data
  • Source. Official UK public procurement notices (Find a Tender), reused under the Open Government Licence v3.0. New notices arrive through the day; the figures are rebuilt nightly.
  • Two views, kept apart. The authority’s own track record and the wider market for the same kind of work sit side by side and are never mixed. Where the local picture is too thin, a figure widens to a broader market and says which one it used.
  • Forecasts are labelled. The price forecast and its range, possible competitors and the earlier-work matches are our estimates from past awards: not published facts, not win chances and not price advice. Official notices do not say who is bidding.
  • Every figure shows what it rests on. Not every notice publishes a bid count, a value or a delivery region, so each figure carries the number of records behind it, and one built on few records is marked as such. The on a figure explains it; the counting rules are in the methodology. Spotted something wrong? Tell us.

Procedure terms & legal framework

From the official record
Procedure method
Competitive flexible procedure
Legal basis
UKPGA · 2023/54 Procurement Act 2023
Procurement category
Goods
Notice status
Planned procurement
Procurement threshold
Above threshold (FTS publication)
Regulatory regime
Defence & security
Commercial structure
Stand-alone contract (no framework)
Competition type
Competitive procedure
GPA / WTO covered
Unspecified in notice
Recurring procurement
Unspecified in notice
First published
13 Jan 2026, 17:35 GMT
Last source update
23 Oct 2026, 14:38 BST
Authority reference
715754451 - Project GRAYBURN
FTS notice number
2026/S 000-100573
Latest notice
Preliminary market engagement notice (UK2)
Classification (CPV)
Rifles
Delivery area
UK
Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-060525 Find a Tender

How it was run

Official notice
Submission deadline
—

Timeline

13 Jan 2026 → 2 Jul 2029 · 5 dates
  1. Planning notice published284 days ago
    13 Jan 2026, 17:35 GMT
  2. Latest notice published1 day ago
    23 Oct 2026, 14:38 BST
  3. Today
    25 Oct 2026
  4. Market engagementin 34 days
    27 Nov 2026, 23:59 GMT

    The engagement will be delivered as a hybrid event, with confirmed organisations able to attend either in person or virtually using Microsoft Teams. The event will comprise a series of presentations by the Authority, followed by optional one-to-one sessions with participating organisations.

    How to participate:

    Each organisation must indicate when registering whether it wishes to attend:

    • in person; or
    • virtually using Microsoft Teams.

    Attendance in either format is subject to confirmation by the Authority.

    Each organisation will be limited to one one-to-one session lasting no longer than 15 minutes.

    Due to time and capacity restrictions, the Authority may be unable to offer sessions to all attendees. Subject to the Authority’s final confirmation, sessions will be allocated on a first come, first served basis. The Authority reserves the right to determine the final allocation and scheduling of sessions.

    The one-to-one sessions are for preliminary market engagement only and will not be used to evaluate or down-select suppliers or solutions.

    Please note: This is an invitation-only event. Invitations will be extended only to organisations that formally register their interest by 17:00 GMT on Friday 30 October 2026 and whose attendance is subsequently confirmed by the Authority. Registration does not guarantee an invitation or attendance.

    Event Details:

    The agenda, timings, venue details, Microsoft Teams joining instructions and any applicable site-access or identification requirements will be provided only to organisations whose attendance has been confirmed by the Authority.

    Interested organisations must confirm their intention using the following email address:

    [email protected]

    Responses must include:

    • organisation name;
    • names and roles of proposed attendees (Maximum of 2);
    • lead contact name, email address and telephone number;
    • confirmation of whether a one-to-one session is requested; and
    • a brief summary of the proposed discussion topics where a one-to-one session is requested.

    The Authority intends to confirm attendance by no later than 17:00 GMT on Friday 6 November 2026.

    Organisations must not attend the event in person or access the virtual session unless they have received written confirmation from the Authority. In-person attendees without confirmation will not be permitted entry, and virtual joining instructions must not be forwarded or shared with other individuals or organisations.

    Organisations are not required to deliver a presentation or submit a formal proposal as a condition of attendance.

    Participation or non-participation in this engagement will not affect an organisation’s eligibility to participate in any future procurement.

    The Authority will not reimburse costs incurred in preparing for or participating in the engagement, including costs associated with in-person attendance.

    The Authority reserves the right to amend, postpone or cancel the Industry Day and is under no obligation to proceed with any subsequent procurement.

  5. Tender notice expectedin 251 days
    2 Jul 2027, 23:59 BST
  6. Contract starts
    2 Jul 2029, 00:00 BST

Notice history

3 events · 2 releases on Find a Tender · since 13 Jan 2026
  1. Pipeline notice published
    13 Jan 2026, 17:35 GMT
    UK1
  2. Preliminary market engagement notice published
    23 Oct 2026, 14:38 BST
    UK2
  3. Published value published: £1,666,666,667
    23 Oct 2026, 14:38 BST

Commercial outcome & contract awards

Pipeline notice
Awards (0)
No award published
Contracts (0)
No contract published
Bid statistics
No aggregate bid statistics published

Contracting authority & participating public bodies

National Armament Director Group

Contracting authorityPublic authority - central government GB-PPON: PVRL-5831-GLMM MOD Abbey Wood, Bristol, South West, BS34 8JHContact email

Official documents & specifications (2)

Official links; attachments are not copied

Notices published for this procedure