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Published 2 May 2025, 14:41 BST

Official UK procurement notice

Humanitarian Emergency Response Operations and Stabilisation 2.0 (HEROS 2.0) - Lot 2: Conflict Expert Advisory Service

Official notice Competition analysis

Authority: Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office (Central government)

ServicesAbove thresholdSME suitableVCSE suitable
Sectors: Administration, defence and social security services (75) Delivery: Delivery location not published
Planned pipeline value£66,950,000pipeline notice, not a live tender · 4 value updates
Tender notice expected 12 Oct 2026from the planned procurement notice
Contract term 6 yrs 8 moends 31 Oct 2034 · up to 31 Oct 2038 with extensions · starts 29 Feb 2028

What is being bought

Published requirement description

The UK Foreign, Commonwealth & Development Office (FCDO) intends to run a competitive procurement for the Humanitarian Emergency Response Operations and Stabilisation (HEROS) successor programme (HEROS 2.0).

HEROS 2 will be procured as two Lots:

  • Lot 1: Early Warning, Risk Analysis and Humanitarian Response
  • Lot 2: Conflict Expert Advisory Service

Implemented since November 2017, the Humanitarian Emergency Response Operations and Stabilisation programme (HEROS 1.0) (Development Tracker link: bit.ly/4176TTi ↗) has enabled FCDO to respond rapidly and at scale to global humanitarian crises, while also supporting work on protracted crises, chronic emergencies and humanitarian reform. HEROS 1.0 provides a flexible delivery model to support the UK Government’s conflict, stabilisation and security objectives in fragile and conflict-affected contexts, both during steady-state periods and in response to emerging crises.

Under HEROS 2 Lot 2: Conflict Expert Advisory Service will deliver the following core capabilities:

-provision of the Conflict Expert Advisory Service

CPV: Foreign economic-aid-related services

The lotProcurement structure

single lot · no lot value published
Lot #1PlannedRenewal 6 yrs 8 moSMEVCSE
Contract period: 29 Feb 2028 – 31 Oct 2034 (6 yrs 8 mo) · up to 31 Oct 2038 with extensions
Eligibility: SME eligibleVCSE eligible
Extensions: Extension options published
75211200 Foreign economic-aid-related services

Who is likely to bid for this lot ↓

Pipeline intelligence · planning stage: how this market runs before the tender is published

How Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office buys Foreign affairs and other services (CPV 7521), and who usually turns up

Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office’s own published record, next to the published market for the same work. Frameworks and DPS are kept out: they attract a different number of bids. Whole-market view: Foreign affairs and other services (CPV 7521) →

1

How the contest usually goes

Winner shares use published awards; bid and price charts use contested lots.

Question for the bid
This buyerForeign, Commonwealth and Development Office · division 75
The marketForeign affairs and other services (CPV 7521)
What to do with it
How often do SMEs win?
i

How often small and medium firms win.

Share of awards where the winner’s size is known.

The counts under this question show how many awards have a known supplier size.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 5 of 34 known-size awards · market: CPV 7521 · Greater London (authority’s region), n=10
15%10%

Small firms have won here. Neither number says whether you qualify; it describes who has been winning.

How often do local suppliers win?
i

How often local firms win similar work.

Winners with a registered address in the delivery region, out of awards with a known address.

Here, local means registered in Greater London (authority’s region).

A local branch does not count if the registered address is elsewhere.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: no winner locations published · market: division 75 · Greater London (authority’s region), n=79
—56%

No winner locations published for this authority. Local means a registered address in Greater London.

How long to a decision?
i

How long buyers here take to decide after bids close.

Middle value in days from the deadline to the first award notice, on competitions that published both dates.

Only decided tenders count, so slow ones still waiting are not in.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 3 decided notices · market: CPV 7521 · UK-wide, n=5
55 days48 days

Half of these awards were announced within 55 days of the bid deadline.

How often single-bid or direct?
i

How often work is awarded with no recorded rival.

Direct awards and tenders where every published lot count shows one bid.

Both shares are minimums: some awards have no bid count.

Thin markets produce this too; it is not proof of a tailored specification.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: at least 6 of 38 procurements with awards had no recorded rival · market: CPV 7521 · Greater London (authority’s region), n=12
16%25%

Missing bid counts may hide more single-bid awards. This share is a minimum.

How many bids did past lots attract?

i

How many bids past lots received.

Each colour is a bid-count range. Only competed lots with a published count are included.

Past bids do not predict this tender.

Last 36 months.

This buyer12 lots with bid counts · broad CPV 75
25% had one bid
The market14 lots with bid counts · CPV 7521 · UK-wide
7% had one bid
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
1 bid25% / 7%
Buyer: 3 of 12 lots with published bid counts. Market: 1 of 14 lots with published bid counts.
2–333% / 29%
Buyer: 4 of 12 lots with published bid counts. Market: 4 of 14 lots with published bid counts.
4–625% / 29%
Buyer: 3 of 12 lots with published bid counts. Market: 4 of 14 lots with published bid counts.
7+17% / 36%
Buyer: 2 of 12 lots with published bid counts. Market: 5 of 14 lots with published bid counts.

How did awards compare with estimates?

i

Where winning prices landed against estimates.

Each colour shows awards below, close to or above the published estimate, one lot at a time.

Past prices are a guide, not a bid price.

Last 36 months.

This buyer6 lots with estimate and award · broad CPV 75
50% below estimate
The market8 lots with estimate and award · CPV 7521 · UK-wide
75% below estimate
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
Below estimate50% / 75%
Buyer: 3 of 6 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 6 of 8 lots with an estimate and award.
Within ±2%50% / 25%
Buyer: 3 of 6 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 2 of 8 lots with an estimate and award.
Above estimate0% / 0%
Buyer: 0 of 6 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 0 of 8 lots with an estimate and award.
2

Assess each lot
i

What past awards tell you about each lot.

See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.

No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.

Open a lot for its forecast, this buyer’s previous supplier and possible competitors, from published award history, not a bid list

Lot #1CPV 752180 monthsSME suitablePublished estimate£67m
Expected competition
i

How many bids this lot may attract.

The forecast uses similar past competitions. The bar shows either that forecast or past bid counts; the line below says which.

Each lot shows its own forecast based on its own category; forecasts for different lots of the same notice are not comparative. The bar shows 47 past lots.

A forecast, not a list of bidders.

—No model forecast yet26% single-bid risk
Past bids on 47 similar lots
1 bid26%
12 of 47 similar past lots received 1 bid (26%).
2–334%
16 of 47 similar past lots received 2–3 (34%).
4–628%
13 of 47 similar past lots received 4–6 (28%).
7+13%
6 of 47 similar past lots received 7+ (13%).
Comparable past lots usually drew 2 bids.
Commercial price forecast
i

Where the award price may land.

The forecast uses similar awards and the buyer’s estimate. The band covers the middle half of likely prices.

No comparable awards for this lot yet.

A statistical guide from past awards, not a price to bid.

—No model forecast yet
No comparable awards on record for this lot’s category yet. The published estimate is £67m, and the forecast stays empty until the market has a record to read.

Who has supplied this buyer on similar work?
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

A past supplier may not bid again.

SupplierThis buyer’s earlier contractLotAward valueWhy listed
Palladium International LimitedEarlier contractHumanitarian Emergency Response Operations and Stabilisation Programme (HEROS)notice published Feb 2025—£330mMatched as the earlier contract

Who could compete for this lot?
i

Who could compete for this lot?

Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.

None is confirmed as a bidder.

Candidate suppliers for this notice have not been worked out yet, so this is not a verdict that nobody fits.

About this data
  • Source. Official UK public procurement notices (Find a Tender), reused under the Open Government Licence v3.0. New notices arrive through the day; the figures are rebuilt nightly.
  • Two views, kept apart. The authority’s own track record and the wider market for the same kind of work sit side by side and are never mixed. Where the local picture is too thin, a figure widens to a broader market and says which one it used.
  • Forecasts are labelled. The price forecast and its range, possible competitors and the earlier-work matches are our estimates from past awards: not published facts, not win chances and not price advice. Official notices do not say who is bidding.
  • Every figure shows what it rests on. Not every notice publishes a bid count, a value or a delivery region, so each figure carries the number of records behind it, and one built on few records is marked as such. The on a figure explains it; the counting rules are in the methodology. Spotted something wrong? Tell us.

What this replaces
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

57% title match.

A past supplier may not bid again.

The prior contract this notice most likely re-tenders · matched by title and category (57% title match), the holder is not guaranteed to re-bid

Humanitarian Emergency Response Operations and Stabilisation Programme (HEROS) — held by Palladium International Limited; no contract end date published.

Procedure terms & legal framework

From the official record
Legal basis
UKPGA · 2023/54 Procurement Act 2023
Procurement category
Services
Notice status
Planned procurement
Procurement threshold
Above threshold (FTS publication)
Regulatory regime
Standard
Commercial structure
Stand-alone contract (no framework)
Competition type
Competitive procedure
GPA / WTO covered
Unspecified in notice
Recurring procurement
Unspecified in notice
First published
2 May 2025, 14:41 BST
Last source update
30 Jun 2026, 16:02 BST
FTS notice number
2026/S 000-061412
Latest notice
Preliminary market engagement notice (UK2)
Classification (CPV)
Foreign economic-aid-related services
Delivery area
Not published
Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-050c62 Find a Tender

How it was run

Official notice
Submission deadline
—

Timeline

2 May 2025 → 29 Feb 2028 · 5 dates
  1. Planning notice published
    2 May 2025, 14:41 BST
  2. Latest notice published114 days ago
    30 Jun 2026, 16:02 BST
  3. Market engagement98 days ago
    15 Jul 2026, 23:59 BST

    FCDO is looking to engage with prospective HEROS suppliers and is seeking feedback from the market on the HEROS 2.0 requirements by way of a period of Market Engagement.

    The Market Engagement will be structured as follows:

    Stage 1 – Publication of Draft Documentation

    The Authority will publish the draft Statement of Requirements (SoR), together with supporting annexes. A historic data pack will also be provided to support suppliers’ operational understanding and context. This will be followed in quick succession by the publication of selected draft contract schedules.

    Satge 2- Approximately one week following Stage 1, the Authority will publish a pre-recorded video setting out:

    -Further context on the draft Statement of Requirements, including key updates since the previous market engagement; and details of the proposed route to market and procurement approach.

    Suppliers will subsequently be invited to complete a questionnaire via this tender portal to provide feedback on both the draft requirements and the proposed procurement process.

    Stage 3 – Supplier Networking Registration

    Suppliers will be invited to register their interest in attending a virtual supplier networking session, planned for mid-July. These sessions are intended to support supplier engagement, enabling organisations to build connections and develop potential supply chain partnerships.

    To access information relating to this market engagement, including the draft SoR, please register on the Authority’s e tendering portal (BravoSolution) at: fcdo.bravosolution.co.uk ↗ under PQQ_2049 – HHumanitarian Emergency Response Operations and Stabilisation 2.0 (HEROS 2.0)- Lot 2: Conflict Expert Advisory Service (Supplier Communication Channel).

    This PQQ will be used for communication and sharing information purposes only to facilitate market engagement

  4. Tender notice expected9 days ago
    12 Oct 2026, 23:59 BST
  5. Today
    22 Oct 2026
  6. Contract starts
    29 Feb 2028

Notice history

9 events · 5 releases on Find a Tender · since 2 May 2025
  1. Preliminary market engagement notice published
    2 May 2025, 14:41 BST
    UK2
  2. Preliminary market engagement notice published
    30 Jun 2026, 12:10 BST
    UK2
  3. Published value updated to £261,680,000
    30 Jun 2026, 12:10 BST
    was £217,916,667
  4. Preliminary market engagement notice published
    30 Jun 2026, 12:17 BST
    UK2
  5. Published value updated to £66,950,000
    30 Jun 2026, 12:17 BST
    was £261,680,000
  6. Preliminary market engagement notice published
    30 Jun 2026, 15:32 BST
    UK2
  7. Published value updated to £261,680,000
    30 Jun 2026, 15:32 BST
    was £66,950,000
  8. Preliminary market engagement notice published
    30 Jun 2026, 16:02 BST
    UK2
  9. Published value updated to £66,950,000
    30 Jun 2026, 16:02 BST
    was £261,680,000
Routine re-releases (5)
  • 2026-06: 1 release · 30 Jun 2026
  • 2025-05: 1 release · 2 May 2025

Commercial outcome & contract awards

Pipeline notice
Awards (0)
No award published
Contracts (0)
No contract published
Bid statistics
No aggregate bid statistics published

Contracting authority & participating public bodies

Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office

Contracting authorityPublic authority - central government GB-PPON: PXRR-8771-PHVX King Charles Street, London, London, SW1A 2AHContact name, email

Official documents & specifications (5)

Official links; attachments are not copied

Notices published for this procedure