Find a TenderPlanned procurementPipeline notice
Published 14 May 2026, 21:13 BST

Official UK procurement notice

Direct Expansion (DX) Units Replacement - Non-section 12 Bakerloo and Victoria Lines (Tranche 3)

Authority: Transport for London (Public body)

Works
Sectors: Construction & Civil Engineering (45) Delivery: Delivery location not published
Planned pipeline valueValue not publishedpipeline notice, not a live tender
Tender notice expected 21 Oct 2028from the planned procurement notice
Contract term 5 yrsends 14 Jan 2034 · starts 15 Jan 2029

What is being bought

Published requirement description

This is the replacement of the Non Section 12 BCV Direct Expansion (DX) Split cooling. This will be 700 units on Bakerloo and Victoria Lines. These systems in the Non-public equipment (Secure) rooms prevent operationally critical assets from overheating and failing (e.g., signalling, power, communications systems), potentially disrupting Railway Operations and in Non-public staff rooms they provide a safe working environment in compliance with Health & Safety at Work Regulations helping to reduce financial maintenance pressure long term and adhere to climate change legislation

CPV: Construction work

The lotProcurement structure

single lot · no lot value published
Lot #1Planned 5 yrs
Contract period: 15 Jan 2029 – 14 Jan 2034 (5 yrs)

Who is likely to bid for this lot ↓

Pipeline intelligence · planning stage: how this market runs before the tender is published

How Transport for London buys Construction work (CPV 45), and who usually turns up

Transport for London’s own published record, next to the published market for the same work. Frameworks and DPS are kept out: they attract a different number of bids. Whole-market view: Construction work (CPV 45) →

1

How the contest usually goes

Winner shares use published awards; bid and price charts use contested lots.

Question for the bid
This buyerTransport for London · division 45
The marketConstruction work (CPV 45) · Greater London (authority’s region)
What to do with it
How often do SMEs win?
i

How often small and medium firms win.

Share of awards where the winner’s size is known.

The counts under this question show how many awards have a known supplier size.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 0 of 6 known-size awards · market: division 45 · Greater London (authority’s region), n=737
0%62%

No small-firm winners recorded among this authority’s published awards in this sample. Small firms win less of this buyer’s work than the market’s: 0% against 62%, n=6.

How often do local suppliers win?
i

How often local firms win similar work.

Winners with a registered address in the delivery region, out of awards with a known address.

Here, local means registered in Greater London (authority’s region).

A local branch does not count if the registered address is elsewhere.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 8 of 12 known-location awards · market: division 45 · Greater London (authority’s region), n=842
67%41%

Most of this buyer’s recorded winners are registered in Greater London.

How long to a decision?
i

How long buyers here take to decide after bids close.

Middle value in days from the deadline to the first award notice, on competitions that published both dates.

Only decided tenders count, so slow ones still waiting are not in.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 6 decided notices · market: division 45 · Greater London (authority’s region), n=142
107 days55 days

Half of these awards were announced within 107 days of the bid deadline.

How often single-bid or direct?
i

How often work is awarded with no recorded rival.

Direct awards and tenders where every published lot count shows one bid.

Both shares are minimums: some awards have no bid count.

Thin markets produce this too; it is not proof of a tailored specification.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: at least 8 of 13 procurements with awards had no recorded rival · market: division 45 · Greater London (authority’s region), n=1,075
62%33%

Direct awards or one recorded bid are common here. Check the route before spending time on a bid.

How many bids did past lots attract?

i

How many bids past lots received.

Each colour is a bid-count range. Only competed lots with a published count are included.

Past bids do not predict this tender.

Last 36 months.

This buyer5 lots with bid counts · broad CPV 45
20% had one bid
The market195 lots with bid counts · division 45 · Greater London (authority’s region)
12% had one bid
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
1 bid20% / 12%
Buyer: 1 of 5 lots with published bid counts. Market: 23 of 195 lots with published bid counts.
2–320% / 30%
Buyer: 1 of 5 lots with published bid counts. Market: 59 of 195 lots with published bid counts.
4–640% / 31%
Buyer: 2 of 5 lots with published bid counts. Market: 60 of 195 lots with published bid counts.
7+20% / 27%
Buyer: 1 of 5 lots with published bid counts. Market: 53 of 195 lots with published bid counts.

How did awards compare with estimates?

i

Where winning prices landed against estimates.

Each colour shows awards below, close to or above the published estimate, one lot at a time.

Past prices are a guide, not a bid price.

Last 36 months.

This buyer25 lots with estimate and award · all categories
48% below estimate
The market144 lots with estimate and award · division 45 · Greater London (authority’s region)
46% below estimate
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
Below estimate48% / 46%
Buyer: 12 of 25 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 66 of 144 lots with an estimate and award.
Within ±2%32% / 31%
Buyer: 8 of 25 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 44 of 144 lots with an estimate and award.
Above estimate20% / 24%
Buyer: 5 of 25 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 34 of 144 lots with an estimate and award.
2

Assess each lot
i

What past awards tell you about each lot.

See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.

No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.

Open a lot for its forecast, this buyer’s previous supplier and possible competitors, from published award history, not a bid list

Lot #160 monthsEstimate not published
Expected competition
i

How many bids this lot may attract.

The forecast uses similar past competitions. The bar shows either that forecast or past bid counts; the line below says which.

Each lot shows its own forecast based on its own category; forecasts for different lots of the same notice are not comparative. The bar shows 195 past lots.

A forecast, not a list of bidders.

—No model forecast yet12% single-bid risk
Past bids on 195 similar lots
1 bid12%
23 of 195 similar past lots received 1 bid (12%).
2–330%
59 of 195 similar past lots received 2–3 (30%).
4–631%
60 of 195 similar past lots received 4–6 (31%).
7+27%
53 of 195 similar past lots received 7+ (27%).
Comparable past lots usually drew 4 bids.
Commercial price forecast
i

Where the award price may land.

The forecast uses similar awards and the buyer’s estimate. The band covers the middle half of likely prices.

No comparable awards for this lot yet.

A statistical guide from past awards, not a price to bid.

—Estimate not published
The buyer published no estimate for this lot, so there is nothing to forecast against. A price prediction here would be a number about a number we do not have.

Who has supplied this buyer on similar work?
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

A past supplier may not bid again.

No earlier contract of this buyer matches this lot on the published record.

Who could compete for this lot?
i

Who could compete for this lot?

Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.

None is confirmed as a bidder.

Candidate suppliers for this notice have not been worked out yet, so this is not a verdict that nobody fits.

About this data
  • Source. Official UK public procurement notices (Find a Tender), reused under the Open Government Licence v3.0. New notices arrive through the day; the figures are rebuilt nightly.
  • Two views, kept apart. The authority’s own track record and the wider market for the same kind of work sit side by side and are never mixed. Where the local picture is too thin, a figure widens to a broader market and says which one it used.
  • Forecasts are labelled. The price forecast and its range, possible competitors and the earlier-work matches are our estimates from past awards: not published facts, not win chances and not price advice. Official notices do not say who is bidding.
  • Every figure shows what it rests on. Not every notice publishes a bid count, a value or a delivery region, so each figure carries the number of records behind it, and one built on few records is marked as such. The on a figure explains it; the counting rules are in the methodology. Spotted something wrong? Tell us.

Procedure terms & legal framework

From the official record
Legal basis
UKPGA · 2023/54 Procurement Act 2023
Procurement category
Works
Notice status
Planned procurement
Procurement threshold
Unspecified in notice
Regulatory regime
Standard
Commercial structure
Stand-alone contract (no framework)
Competition type
Competitive procedure
GPA / WTO covered
Unspecified in notice
Recurring procurement
Unspecified in notice
First published
14 May 2026, 21:13 BST
Last source update
14 May 2026, 21:13 BST
Authority reference
WS2425031346
FTS notice number
2026/S 000-044669
Latest notice
Pipeline notice (UK1)
Classification (CPV)
Construction work
Delivery area
Not published
Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-069968 Find a Tender

How it was run

Official notice
Submission deadline
—

Timeline

14 May 2026 → 15 Jan 2029 · 3 dates
  1. Planning notice published160 days ago
    14 May 2026, 21:13 BST
  2. Today
    22 Oct 2026
  3. Tender notice expected
    21 Oct 2028, 23:59 BST
  4. Contract starts
    15 Jan 2029

Notice history

1 event · 1 release on Find a Tender
  1. Pipeline notice published
    14 May 2026, 21:13 BST
    UK1

Commercial outcome & contract awards

Pipeline notice
Awards (0)
No award published
Contracts (0)
No contract published
Bid statistics
No aggregate bid statistics published

Contracting authority & participating public bodies

Transport for London

Contracting authorityPublic undertaking GB-PPON: PHMT-6197-NWNZ 5 Endeavour Square, London, London, E20 1JNContact name, email

Official documents & specifications (1)

Official links; attachments are not copied

Notices published for this procedure

  • Pipeline notice planningPipeline noticeUK1Pipeline notice on Find a Tender