Find a TenderPlanned procurementPipeline notice
Published 4 Nov 2026, 16:50 GMT

Official UK procurement notice

Next Generation Red Air - Future Opportunity

Authority: Ministry of Defence (Central government)

ServicesCompetitive flexible procedureAbove threshold
Sectors: Education & Training (80) Delivery: Delivery location not published
Planned pipeline valueValue not publishedpipeline notice, not a live tender
Tender notice expected 30 Apr 2027from the planned procurement notice
Contract term 10 yrsends 30 Mar 2040 · starts 29 Mar 2030
Notice summaryFrom the published notice

Following the release of the Defence Investment Plan and an internal review within the Next Generation Red Air team, the Authority can confirm that the delivery of Next Generation Red Air will likely be in 2031 and maybe later. It is anticipated that market engagement will take place in Q1 2027, with a Procurement Specific Questionnaire (PSQ) release in Q2 2028, and contract award in Q1 2030.

What is being bought

Published requirement description

Following the release of the Defence Investment Plan and an internal review within the Next Generation Red Air team, the Authority can confirm that the delivery of Next Generation Red Air will likely be in 2031 and maybe later. It is anticipated that market engagement will take place in Q1 2027, with a Procurement Specific Questionnaire (PSQ) release in Q2 2028, and contract award in Q1 2030. The Next Generation Red Air team will continue to refine this timeline and provide the market with further clarity when possible.

CPV: Training and simulation in security equipment

The lotProcurement structure

single lot · no lot value published
Lot #1Planned 10 yrs

Pipeline intelligence · planning stage: how this market runs before the tender is published

How Ministry of Defence buys Training and simulation in security equipment (CPV 8061), and who usually turns up

Ministry of Defence’s published record next to the market for the same work. Frameworks and DPS are left out: they draw different bid counts. Whole-market view: Training and simulation in security equipment (CPV 8061) →

1

How the contest usually goes

Winner shares use published awards; bid and price charts use contested lots.

Question for the bid
This buyerMinistry of Defence · all categories
What to do with it
How often do SMEs win?
i

How often small and medium firms win.

Share of awards where the winner’s size is known.

The counts under this question show how many awards have a known supplier size.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 258 of 713 known-size awards · market: CPV 8061 · UK-wide, n=7
36%43%

Small firms have won here. Neither number says whether you qualify; it describes who has been winning.

How often do local suppliers win?
i

How often local firms win similar work.

Winners with a registered address in the delivery region, out of awards with a known address.

Local means the winner is registered in the region where that award was delivered. The market figure counts awards delivered in South East England (authority’s region).

A local branch does not count if the registered address is elsewhere.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 64 of 132 known-location awards · market: division 80 · South East England (authority’s region), n=503
48%31%

Most of this buyer’s recorded winners were registered outside the region where that award was delivered.

How long to a decision?
i

How long buyers here take to decide after bids close.

Middle value in days from the bid deadline to the award date, on competitions that published both.

Only decided tenders count, so slow ones still waiting are not in.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: 85 decided notices · market: division 80 · South East England (authority’s region), n=58
43 days39 days

Half of these awards have an award date within 43 days of the bid deadline.

How often single-bid or direct?
i

How often work is awarded with no recorded rival.

Direct awards and tenders where every published lot count shows one bid.

The buyer’s share is a minimum: some awards have no bid count.

Thin markets produce this too; it is not proof of a tailored specification.

Last 36 months.

Buyer: at least 541 of 955 procurements with awards had no recorded rival · market: CPV 8061 · UK-wide, n=7
57%57%

Direct awards or one recorded bid are common here. Check the route before spending time on a bid.

How many bids did past lots attract?

i

How many bids past lots received.

Each colour is a bid-count range. Only competed lots with a published count are included.

Past bids do not predict this tender.

Last 36 months.

This buyer270 lots with bid counts · all categories
47% had one bid
The market138 lots with bid counts · division 80 · South East England (authority’s region)
32% had one bid
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
1 bid47% / 32%
Buyer: 126 of 270 lots with published bid counts. Market: 44 of 138 lots with published bid counts.
2–331% / 28%
Buyer: 85 of 270 lots with published bid counts. Market: 39 of 138 lots with published bid counts.
4–617% / 25%
Buyer: 47 of 270 lots with published bid counts. Market: 34 of 138 lots with published bid counts.
7+4% / 15%
Buyer: 12 of 270 lots with published bid counts. Market: 21 of 138 lots with published bid counts.

How did awards compare with estimates?

i

Where winning prices landed against estimates.

Each colour shows awards below, close to or above the published estimate, one lot at a time.

Past prices are a guide, not a bid price.

Last 36 months.

This buyer92 lots with estimate and award · all categories
60% below estimate
The market117 lots with estimate and award · division 80 · South East England (authority’s region)
32% below estimate
Buyer / market · select a colour for counts
Below estimate60% / 32%
Buyer: 55 of 92 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 38 of 117 lots with an estimate and award.
Within ±2%21% / 55%
Buyer: 19 of 92 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 64 of 117 lots with an estimate and award.
Above estimate20% / 13%
Buyer: 18 of 92 lots with an estimate and award. Market: 15 of 117 lots with an estimate and award.
2

Assess each lot
i

What past awards tell you about each lot.

See the forecast, this buyer’s earlier suppliers and firms with relevant wins.

No supplier is confirmed as a bidder.

Open a lot for its forecast, this buyer’s previous supplier and possible competitors, from published award history, not a bid list

Lot #1CPV 8061120 monthsEstimate not published
Expected competition
i

How many bids this lot may attract.

The forecast uses similar past competitions. The bar shows either that forecast or past bid counts; the line below says which.

Each lot shows its own forecast based on its own category; forecasts for different lots of the same notice are not comparative. The bar shows 138 past lots.

A forecast, not a list of bidders.

—No model forecast yet32% chance of a single bid
Past bids on 138 similar lots
1 bid32%
44 of 138 similar past lots received 1 bid (32%).
2–328%
39 of 138 similar past lots received 2–3 (28%).
4–625%
34 of 138 similar past lots received 4–6 (25%).
7+15%
21 of 138 similar past lots received 7+ (15%).
Comparable past lots usually drew 2 bids.
Commercial price forecast
i

Where the award price may land.

The forecast uses similar awards and the buyer’s estimate. The band covers the middle half of likely prices.

No comparable awards for this lot yet.

A statistical guide from past awards, not a price to bid.

—Estimate not published
The buyer published no estimate for this lot, so there is nothing to forecast against. A price prediction here would be a number about a number we do not have.

Who has supplied this buyer on similar work?
i

Who has done similar work for this buyer.

Past contracts are matched by buyer, title and type of work.

A past supplier may not bid again.

No earlier contract of this buyer matches this lot on the published record.

Who could compete for this lot?
i

Who could compete for this lot?

Firms with relevant past wins. On a framework, we show firms on that agreement.

None is confirmed as a bidder.

Candidate suppliers for this notice have not been worked out yet, so this is not a verdict that nobody fits.

About this data
  • Source. Official UK public procurement notices (Find a Tender), reused under the Open Government Licence v3.0. New notices arrive through the day; the figures are rebuilt nightly. Contracts Finder contracts appear on the Retender Radar, not yet in these figures.
  • Two views, kept apart. The authority’s own track record and the wider market for the same kind of work sit side by side and are never mixed. Where the local picture is too thin, a figure widens to a broader market and says which one it used.
  • Forecasts are labelled. The price forecast and its range, possible competitors and the earlier-work matches are our estimates from past awards: not published facts, not win chances and not price advice. Official notices do not say who is bidding.
  • Every figure shows what it rests on. Not every notice publishes a bid count, a value or a delivery region, so each figure carries the number of records behind it, and one built on few records is marked as such. The on a figure explains it; the counting rules are in the methodology. Spotted something wrong? Tell us.

Procedure terms & legal framework

From the official record
Procedure method
Competitive flexible procedure
Legal basis
UKPGA · 2023/54 Procurement Act 2023
Procurement category
Services
Notice status
Planned procurement
Procurement threshold
Above threshold (FTS publication)
Regulatory regime
Standard
Commercial structure
Stand-alone contract (no framework)
Competition type
Competitive procedure
GPA / WTO covered
Unspecified in notice
Recurring procurement
Unspecified in notice
First published
4 Nov 2026, 16:50 GMT
Last source update
4 Nov 2026, 16:50 GMT
FTS notice number
2026/S 000-104887
Latest notice
Pipeline notice (UK1)
Classification (CPV)
Training and simulation in security equipment
Delivery area
Not published
Official registry OCID
ocds-h6vhtk-07b359 Find a Tender

How it was run

Official notice
Submission deadline
—

Timeline

4 Nov 2026 → 29 Mar 2030 · 3 dates
  1. Planning notice published2h ago
    4 Nov 2026, 16:50 GMT
  2. Today
    4 Nov 2026
  3. Tender notice expectedin 177 days
    30 Apr 2027, 23:59 BST
  4. Contract starts
    29 Mar 2030

Notice history

1 event · 1 release on Find a Tender
  1. Pipeline notice published
    4 Nov 2026, 16:50 GMT
    UK1

Commercial outcome & contract awards

Pipeline notice
Awards (0)
No award published
Contracts (0)
No contract published
Bid statistics
No aggregate bid statistics published

Contracting authority & participating public bodies

Ministry of Defence

Contracting authorityPublic authority - central government GB-PPON: PHVX-4316-ZVGZ RAF High Wycombe, High Wycombe, South East, HP14 4UEContact email

Official documents & specifications (1)

Official links; attachments are not copied

Notices published for this procedure

  • Pipeline notice planningPipeline noticeUK1Pipeline notice on Find a Tender