Development of modelling and scenarios for achieving the goals and targets of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework

Nature is declining globally at rates unprecedented in human history with around 1 million animal and plant species threatened with extinction within decades . Human activities have pushed many species to the brink of extinction and ecosystems to degradation through land- and sea-use change, over exploitation, pollution, climate change, and invasive species. Biodiversity loss is not only an environmental issue, but also a developmental, economic, security, and social one. To date, agreements to halt and reverse biodiversity loss have failed to reach the desired targets. In December 2022, the 15th meeting of the Conference of the Parties (COP15) to the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) adopted the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (KMGBF), a landmark agreement for biodiversity. It sets out four long-term goals to be achieved by 2050, related to the CBD’s 2050 Vision for Biodiversity of “a world of living in harmony with nature where, by 2050, biodiversity is valued, conserved, restored and wisely used, maintaining ecosystem services, sustaining a healthy planet and delivering benefits essential for all people”, and 23 short-term targets to be achieved by 2030, which will contribute towards achieving these goals. The aim of this research is to align and further build on the best available and most appropriate models (biophysical, social, environmental, economic) with the KMGBF to provide clear pathways and insight into the physical, environmental and socio-economic changes that are required to achieve the framework. <br/>The aim of this research is to align and further build on the best available and most appropriate models (biophysical, social, environmental, economic) with the KMGBF to provide clear pathways and insight into the physical, environmental and socio-economic changes that are required to achieve the framework. <br/>This may be achieved through the following objectives:<br/>• Design a quantitative modelling approach that assesses existing and anticipated global policies against KMGBF goals and targets in the context of a dynamic global physical, social and economic environment. This can include predictions that take into account direct and indirect drivers of biodiversity loss.<br/>• Identify and/or develop scenarios and their respective uncertainties. These scenarios will be based on global policies, commitments and economic/environmental baselines to be simulated in this modelling approach reflecting different evidence about existing and planned policies' effectiveness and the future state of the world. <br/>• Establish the current ‘gap’ for achieving the KMGBF goals and targets. This will identify pathways and drivers to provide predictions of where we will get to and when, and assess their feasibility under these different scenarios. <br/>• Identify the types of policy physical, environmental and socio-economic changes that are required to address the ‘gap’ and achieve multiple global goals/targets simultaneously.<br/>• Identify synergies and trade-offs between individual KMGBF targets and with other frameworks, including the Paris Agreement and the Sustainable Development Goals.<br/>Anticipated outcomes of the project include:<br/>• Improved understanding of different pathways for achieving the goals and targets of the KMGBF and the drivers behind them, using models to answer specific policy-relevant research questions.<br/>• A clearer insight into the impacts of future policy decisions through a better understanding of the most effective interventions, their global/local context, any unintended consequences, and the barriers currently preventing their implementation. <br/>• Accessible knowledge base on biodiversity, ecosystem service and relevant socio-economic modelling through clearly communicating findings in an engaging and impactful manner, using innovative communication methods such as infographics, as well as by making any models and databases used available to Defra.<br/>• Models that are aligned with KMGBF indicators as well as others of interest (such as Paris Agreement and SDGs) and can be used to answer policy-relevant questions.