S30075b Third Generation South East Regional Traffic Model Build

In brief, this project seeks to update the SERTM2 model to a new baseline of 2025 and provide a new set of forecasts. The baseline will reflect post-COVID travel conditions which will then be carried through into the forecasts. The refreshed models will then provide a better evidential basis to support their existing use cases, as well as new and emerging use cases, as detailed in Section 110.

The models are required to be developed as far as is practicable in accordance with the guidance contained in TAG. The models should be calibrated and validated in line with the criteria developed for the second RTMs, with the intention to equal or improve on the second generation RTMs' calibration and validation performance.

While delivering the service, the Consultant will:

• Co-lead on the Matrix Technical Consistency Group, with specific responsibility for developing the prior highway car matrices and the rail passenger matrices for all models,
• Input into the other Technical Consistency Groups led by other RTM3 model developers, providing critical challenge and following agreed upon methods
• Update the SERTM model networks in alignment with the advice set out by the Network TCG
• Update the SERTM forecasts in alignment with the advice set out by the Forecasting TCG
• Provide SERTM3 Handover Packages, including the final calibrated and validated models, as agreed in the End User TCG.

While delivering the service, the Consultant must provide the following deliverables:

• A Transport Data Package report detailing the data used in the build and calibration/validation of the model, and the relative robustness of these datasets.
• A Model Development Report which details the methods utilised to update the models. The Model Development Report should be akin to a Transport Model Package report. The Model Development Report should contain a summary of the process used to build the matrices.
• A Forecasting Report which details the methods utilised to update the forecasts. A Forecasting Report should be akin to a Transport Forecasting Package report.
• The End-user Handover Packages, which contains any relevant data analysis / modelling files relevant for end-users of the model needed for the use cases identified above, as specified by the End User Technical Consistency Group.
• A National Highways Handover Package which contains any relevant handover files used by the Consultant in the development of the model, which do not end up in the End User Handover Packages.