The Global Carbon Finance Model (GLOCAF)

The Global Carbon Finance Model (GLOCAF) is DESNZ's in-house model of hypothetical international carbon markets and global decarbonisation scenarios at 5-yearly time horizons up to 2050. It is used to provide a robust evidence base to inform UK international climate change policy and strategy, modelling the most cost-effective distribution of abatement across sectors and regions given different abatement targets at global, regional or sectoral levels.

From an international perspective, outputs from the GLOCAF model inform the UK's understanding of global decarbonisation scenarios and implementation of international climate commitments.

Domestically, GLOCAF outputs are used as part of the evidence base that informs the emissions targets included in domestic legislation, as set out in the carbon budgets orders and in the net zero 2050 target.

GLOCAF currently allows modelling of up to 26 countries/regions (including emissions from international aviation and maritime transport as separate 'regions'). Together, these countries/regions provide global coverage. For example, the Americas are currently split into six countries/regions: Canada, USA, Mexico, Rest of Central America, Brazil, and Rest of South America. GLOCAF can currently model up to 27 sectors.

The aim of a data procurement is to provide an updated dataset of emissions from energy and industry Sectors; carbon dioxide and non-carbon dioxide emissions, e.g. methane; and abatement costs across a regional and sectoral disaggregation used as inputs to the GLOCAF model. The necessary breakdowns are summarised as follows:

Historic data and projections of emissions from energy and industry sectors, including process emissions, and the costs of reducing them are required, at global coverage, for the years 1990 - 2050 at 5-yearly intervals:

historic data with projections of a Business as Usual [BaU] / Current Policy scenario

and the costs of reducing emissions to be modelled in the form of marginal abatement cost curves [MACCs] for at least the period 2030-2050.

The BaU provides a counterfactual from which MACCs can be subtracted to model future emissions projections given different action scenarios. It is necessary that the MACCs reflect a range of action pathways. Traditionally the MACCs have simulated 3 approaches to climate action: progressive climate action policy adoption, or rather a linear adoption of increased climate ambition policies; early action reflecting largescale, near term investment in climate ambition policies and technology, modelling greater abatement costs in the short-term, but low abatement costs overall; and delayed action where action is deferred and the curve of abatement follows an exponential growth shape reaching high marginal costs.